Putnok VSE 1–0 Karcag SE: Result & Stats

Putnok VSE

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Karcag SE

2/19/2023

NB III - Northeast · Keleti - 22Várady Béla Sportközpont

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 49+ matches

Putnok VSE46%

×Draw24%

Karcag SE30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Putnok VSEExpected goals in this matchKarcag SE

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.63

1.28

Putnok VSE

1.63

Karcag SE

1.28

Putnok VSE creates 27% more chances

Season form · 110 home / 49 away

1.99

creates per match

1.41

1.16

allows per match

1.27

creates per match

Putnok VSE

1.99

Karcag SE

1.41

allows per match

Putnok VSE

1.16

Karcag SE

1.27

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Putnok VSE+0.00on par

Karcag SE+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Putnok VSE ↓

Karcag SE →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Putnok VSE or draw

70%

Putnok VSE or Karcag SE

76%

Draw or Karcag SE

54%

Winning margin

Putnok VSE wins by 2+

24%

Karcag SE wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Putnok VSE 1+ goals

80%

Putnok VSE 2+ goals

48%

Putnok VSE 3+ goals

22%

Karcag SE 1+ goals

72%

Karcag SE 2+ goals

37%

Karcag SE 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Putnok VSE (draw refunded)

60%

Karcag SE (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Putnok VSE at home — creates 1.99, concedes 1.16 · 110 matches

Karcag SE away — creates 1.41, concedes 1.27 · 49 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Putnok VSE attack 1.99 + Karcag SE defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.63

Karcag SE attack 1.41 + Putnok VSE defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.28

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Putnok VSE scores more

46%

level

24%

Karcag SE scores more

30%

Putnok VSE at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Putnok VSE will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff