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Karcag SE vs Putnok VSE — NB III - Northeast 2019

Karcag SE
Karcag SE
FT
3 – 2
HT: 3 – 2
Putnok VSE
Putnok VSE
4/20/2025NB III - NortheastNB III - Northeast · Northeast - 25Ligeti úti Sporttelep

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 49+ matches

Karcag SE47%
×Draw23%
Putnok VSE30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Karcag SE
1.76
Putnok VSE
1.35

Karcag SE creates 30% more chances

Season form · 49 home / 112 away

creates per match

Karcag SE
1.98
Putnok VSE
1.63

allows per match

Karcag SE
1.08
Putnok VSE
1.54

finishing

Karcag SE+0.00on par
Putnok VSE+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Karcag SE ↓

Putnok VSE →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Karcag SE or draw
70%
Karcag SE or Putnok VSE
77%
Draw or Putnok VSE
53%

Winning margin

Karcag SE wins by 2+
25%
Putnok VSE wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Karcag SE 1+ goals
83%
Karcag SE 2+ goals
52%
Karcag SE 3+ goals
26%
Putnok VSE 1+ goals
74%
Putnok VSE 2+ goals
39%
Putnok VSE 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Karcag SE (draw refunded)
61%
Putnok VSE (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Karcag SE at home — creates 1.98, concedes 1.08 · 49 matches

Putnok VSE away — creates 1.63, concedes 1.54 · 112 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Karcag SE attack 1.98 + Putnok VSE defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.76

Putnok VSE attack 1.63 + Karcag SE defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Karcag SE scores more
47%
level
23%
Putnok VSE scores more
30%

Karcag SE at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Karcag SE will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

NB III - Northeast: Karcag SE 3–2 Putnok VSE

Karcag SE beat Putnok VSE 3-2 in NB III - Northeast on April 20, 2025.

The match was played at Ligeti úti Sporttelep in Karcag.