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Putnok VSE vs FC Hatvan — NB III - Northeast 2019

Putnok VSE
Putnok VSE
FT
3 – 0
HT: 3 – 0
FC Hatvan
FC Hatvan
11/2/2025NB III - NortheastNB III - Northeast · Northeast - 14Várady Béla Sportközpont

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 91+ matches

Putnok VSE58%
×Draw21%
FC Hatvan20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Putnok VSE
2.01
FC Hatvan
1.10

Putnok VSE creates 83% more chances

Season form · 110 home / 91 away

creates per match

Putnok VSE
1.99
FC Hatvan
1.04

allows per match

Putnok VSE
1.16
FC Hatvan
2.03

finishing

Putnok VSE+0.00on par
FC Hatvan+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Putnok VSE ↓

FC Hatvan →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–110%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Putnok VSE or draw
80%
Putnok VSE or FC Hatvan
79%
Draw or FC Hatvan
42%

Winning margin

Putnok VSE wins by 2+
35%
FC Hatvan wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Putnok VSE 1+ goals
87%
Putnok VSE 2+ goals
59%
Putnok VSE 3+ goals
32%
FC Hatvan 1+ goals
67%
FC Hatvan 2+ goals
30%
FC Hatvan 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Putnok VSE (draw refunded)
74%
FC Hatvan (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Putnok VSE at home — creates 1.99, concedes 1.16 · 110 matches

FC Hatvan away — creates 1.04, concedes 2.03 · 91 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Putnok VSE attack 1.99 + FC Hatvan defence 2.03 → ÷2 → 2.01

FC Hatvan attack 1.04 + Putnok VSE defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Putnok VSE scores more
58%
level
21%
FC Hatvan scores more
20%

Putnok VSE at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Putnok VSE will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Putnok VSE vs FC Hatvan

Putnok VSE beat FC Hatvan 3-0 in NB III - Northeast on November 2, 2025.

The match was played at Várady Béla Sportközpont in Putnok.