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FC Hatvan vs Putnok VSE — NB III - Northeast 2019

FC Hatvan
FC Hatvan
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Putnok VSE
Putnok VSE
10/13/2024NB III - NortheastNB III - Northeast · Northeast - 11Népkert-Sporttelep

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 92+ matches

FC Hatvan34%
×Draw24%
Putnok VSE42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FC Hatvan
1.46
Putnok VSE
1.65

Putnok VSE creates 13% more chances

Season form · 92 home / 112 away

creates per match

FC Hatvan
1.39
Putnok VSE
1.63

allows per match

FC Hatvan
1.67
Putnok VSE
1.54

finishing

FC Hatvan+0.00on par
Putnok VSE+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Hatvan ↓

Putnok VSE →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

FC Hatvan or draw
58%
FC Hatvan or Putnok VSE
76%
Draw or Putnok VSE
66%

Winning margin

FC Hatvan wins by 2+
16%
Putnok VSE wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

FC Hatvan 1+ goals
77%
FC Hatvan 2+ goals
43%
FC Hatvan 3+ goals
18%
Putnok VSE 1+ goals
81%
Putnok VSE 2+ goals
49%
Putnok VSE 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

FC Hatvan (draw refunded)
45%
Putnok VSE (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Hatvan at home — creates 1.39, concedes 1.67 · 92 matches

Putnok VSE away — creates 1.63, concedes 1.54 · 112 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Hatvan attack 1.39 + Putnok VSE defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.46

Putnok VSE attack 1.63 + FC Hatvan defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.65

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

FC Hatvan scores more
34%
level
24%
Putnok VSE scores more
42%

Putnok VSE at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Putnok VSE will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: FC Hatvan vs Putnok VSE

Putnok VSE beat FC Hatvan 1-0 in NB III - Northeast on October 13, 2024.

The match was played at Népkert-Sporttelep in Hatvan.