Putnok VSE 3–1 Cigand SE: Result & Stats

Putnok VSE

FT

3 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Cigand SE

4/13/2025

NB III - Northeast · Northeast - 24Várady Béla Sportközpont

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Putnok VSE45%

×Draw24%

Cigand SE31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Putnok VSEExpected goals in this matchCigand SE

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.69

1.37

Putnok VSE

1.69

Cigand SE

1.37

Putnok VSE creates 23% more chances

Season form · 110 home / 45 away

1.99

creates per match

1.58

1.16

allows per match

1.38

creates per match

Putnok VSE

1.99

Cigand SE

1.58

allows per match

Putnok VSE

1.16

Cigand SE

1.38

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Putnok VSE+0.00on par

Cigand SE+0.00on par

Total goals

Over59
Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Putnok VSE ↓

Cigand SE →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

59%41%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Putnok VSE or draw

69%

Putnok VSE or Cigand SE

76%

Draw or Cigand SE

55%

Winning margin

Putnok VSE wins by 2+

24%

Cigand SE wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Putnok VSE 1+ goals

82%

Putnok VSE 2+ goals

50%

Putnok VSE 3+ goals

24%

Cigand SE 1+ goals

75%

Cigand SE 2+ goals

40%

Cigand SE 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Putnok VSE (draw refunded)

59%

Cigand SE (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Putnok VSE at home — creates 1.99, concedes 1.16 · 110 matches

Cigand SE away — creates 1.58, concedes 1.38 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Putnok VSE attack 1.99 + Cigand SE defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.69

Cigand SE attack 1.58 + Putnok VSE defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.37

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Putnok VSE scores more

45%

level

24%

Cigand SE scores more

31%

Putnok VSE at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Putnok VSE will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff