Puszcza Niepołomice vs Stal Mielec — I Liga 2024
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 19+ matches
Puszcza Niepołomice50%
Stal Mielec26%✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Puszcza Niepołomice creates 47% more chances
Season form · 22 home / 19 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Over54
- Under46
3+ goals likely
Both teams score
- Yes56
- No44
Both teams likely to score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Puszcza Niepołomice ↓
Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Puszcza Niepołomice at home — creates 1.45, concedes 1.05 · 22 matches
Stal Mielec away — creates 1.26, concedes 1.95 · 19 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Puszcza Niepołomice attack 1.45 + Stal Mielec defence 1.95 → ÷2 → 1.70
Stal Mielec attack 1.26 + Puszcza Niepołomice defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.16
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 50%?"
Puszcza Niepołomice at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 50% does not mean "Puszcza Niepołomice will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Match Events
Puszcza Niepołomice substitutes
Wisla Krakow
Wieczysta Kraków
Slask Wroclaw
Chrobry Głogów
ŁKS Łódź
Ruch Chorzów
Polonia Warszawa
Miedz LegnicaPuszcza Niepołomice
Polonia Bytom
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki
Odra Opole
Stal Rzeszów
Pogoń SiedlceStal Mielec
Znicz Pruszków
Górnik Łęczna
Tychy 71If points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Puszcza Niepołomice host Stal Mielec on Wednesday, 5 November 2025 at 16:00. The match is part of the I Liga 2024/2025 season.
I Liga: Puszcza Niepołomice 1–1 Stal Mielec
Puszcza Niepołomice and Stal Mielec drew 1-1 in I Liga on November 5, 2025.
Goals: M. Cholewiak (14'), P. Kruszelnicki (64').
The match was played at Stadion Miejski w Niepołomicach in Niepołomice.