Puszcza Niepołomice 2–3 Stal Mielec: Result & Stats

Puszcza Niepołomice

FT

2 – 3

HT: 0 – 3

Stal Mielec

J. Atanasov 70'

G. Barkovskiy 51'

P. Wlazło 37' (pen)

M. Matras 25'

M. Guillaumier 5'

5/12/2025

Ekstraklasa · Round 32Stadion Miejski w Niepołomicach

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Puszcza Niepołomice45%

×Draw23%

Stal Mielec32%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Puszcza NiepołomiceExpected goals in this matchStal Mielec

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.78

1.46

Puszcza Niepołomice

1.78

Stal Mielec

1.46

Puszcza Niepołomice creates 22% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 19 away

1.56

creates per match

1.21

1.72

allows per match

2.00

creates per match

Puszcza Niepołomice

1.56

Stal Mielec

1.21

allows per match

Puszcza Niepołomice

1.72

Stal Mielec

2.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Puszcza Niepołomice+0.00on par

Stal Mielec+0.00on par

Total goals

Over63
Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes64
No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Puszcza Niepołomice ↓

Stal Mielec →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–110%

1–27%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

63%37%3.5

40%60%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

Puszcza Niepołomice or draw

68%

Puszcza Niepołomice or Stal Mielec

77%

Draw or Stal Mielec

55%

Winning margin

Puszcza Niepołomice wins by 2+

24%

Stal Mielec wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Puszcza Niepołomice 1+ goals

83%

Puszcza Niepołomice 2+ goals

53%

Puszcza Niepołomice 3+ goals

26%

Stal Mielec 1+ goals

77%

Stal Mielec 2+ goals

43%

Stal Mielec 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Puszcza Niepołomice (draw refunded)

59%

Stal Mielec (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

54%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Puszcza Niepołomice at home — creates 1.56, concedes 1.72 · 18 matches

Stal Mielec away — creates 1.21, concedes 2.00 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Puszcza Niepołomice attack 1.56 + Stal Mielec defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.78

Stal Mielec attack 1.21 + Puszcza Niepołomice defence 1.72 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Puszcza Niepołomice scores more

45%

level

23%

Stal Mielec scores more

32%

Puszcza Niepołomice at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Puszcza Niepołomice will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

21

M. Matras

Stal Mielec · D

8.6

Match Events

5'

M. Guillaumier↳ M. Matras

21'

Konrad Stępień

25'

M. Matras

37'

P. WlazłoPenalty

46'

M. Cholewiak← K. Stępień

46'

J. Stec← R. Yakuba

46'

H. Tomalski← J. Serafin

51'

53'

56'

59'

67'

I. Revenco← M. Sipľak

70'

J. Atanasov

71'

S. Krykun← F. Gerbowski

88'

R. Dadok← Ł. Wolsztyński

88'

M. Domański← Ivan Cavaleiro

90'

M. Radecki← A. Klimek

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

PuszczaStal

Overview

42%Possession58%

20Total Shots22

2.32Expected Goals (xG)2.90

6Corners6

16Fouls8

Shots

20Total Shots22

4On Target9

8Off Target5

8Blocked8

10Inside Box15

10Outside Box7

Passing

42%Possession58%

318Total Passes473

261Accurate Passes398

82%Pass Accuracy84%

Goalkeeping

5Saves3

Discipline

16Fouls8

3Yellow Cards1

3Offsides2

Match Recap: Puszcza Niepołomice vs Stal Mielec

Stal Mielec beat Puszcza Niepołomice 3-2 in Ekstraklasa on May 12, 2025.

Goals: M. Guillaumier (5'), M. Matras (25'), P. Wlazło (37' pen), G. Barkovskiy (51'), J. Atanasov (70').

Stal Mielec controlled possession (58%) and registered 22 shots to 20.

The match was played at Stadion Miejski w Niepołomicach in Niepołomice.

Puszcza Niepołomice vs Stal Mielec — Ekstraklasa 2024

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Puszcza Niepołomice vs Stal Mielec