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Puszcza Niepołomice vs Pogon Szczecin — Ekstraklasa 2018

Puszcza Niepołomice
Puszcza Niepołomice
FT
4 – 5
HT: 1 – 2
Pogon Szczecin
Pogon Szczecin
4/25/2025EkstraklasaEkstraklasa · Round 30Stadion Miejski w Niepołomicach

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Puszcza Niepołomice37%
×Draw26%
Pogon Szczecin37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Puszcza Niepołomice
1.35
Pogon Szczecin
1.36

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 34 home / 138 away

creates per match

Puszcza Niepołomice
1.47
Pogon Szczecin
1.26

allows per match

Puszcza Niepołomice
1.47
Pogon Szczecin
1.23

finishing

Puszcza Niepołomice+0.00on par
Pogon Szczecin+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Puszcza Niepołomice ↓

Pogon Szczecin →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Puszcza Niepołomice or draw
63%
Puszcza Niepołomice or Pogon Szczecin
74%
Draw or Pogon Szczecin
63%

Winning margin

Puszcza Niepołomice wins by 2+
17%
Pogon Szczecin wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Puszcza Niepołomice 1+ goals
74%
Puszcza Niepołomice 2+ goals
39%
Puszcza Niepołomice 3+ goals
15%
Pogon Szczecin 1+ goals
74%
Pogon Szczecin 2+ goals
39%
Pogon Szczecin 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Puszcza Niepołomice (draw refunded)
50%
Pogon Szczecin (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Puszcza Niepołomice at home — creates 1.47, concedes 1.47 · 34 matches

Pogon Szczecin away — creates 1.26, concedes 1.23 · 138 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Puszcza Niepołomice attack 1.47 + Pogon Szczecin defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.35

Pogon Szczecin attack 1.26 + Puszcza Niepołomice defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.36

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Puszcza Niepołomice scores more
37%
level
26%
Pogon Szczecin scores more
37%

Puszcza Niepołomice at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Puszcza Niepołomice will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Puszcza Niepołomice vs Pogon Szczecin

Pogon Szczecin beat Puszcza Niepołomice 5-4 in Ekstraklasa on April 25, 2025.

The match was played at Stadion Miejski w Niepołomicach in Niepołomice.