Pogon Szczecin 1–0 Puszcza Niepołomice

Pogon Szczecin

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Puszcza Niepołomice

5/6/2024

Ekstraklasa · Round 31Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Pogon Szczecin58%

×Draw23%

Puszcza Niepołomice19%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Pogon SzczecinExpected goals in this matchPuszcza Niepołomice

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.79

0.93

Pogon Szczecin

1.79

Puszcza Niepołomice

0.93

Pogon Szczecin creates 92% more chances

Season form · 136 home / 34 away

1.77

creates per match

0.76

1.10

allows per match

1.82

creates per match

Pogon Szczecin

1.77

Puszcza Niepołomice

0.76

allows per match

Pogon Szczecin

1.10

Puszcza Niepołomice

1.82

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Pogon Szczecin+0.00on par

Puszcza Niepołomice+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pogon Szczecin ↓

Puszcza Niepołomice →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–111%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–25%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Pogon Szczecin or draw

81%

Pogon Szczecin or Puszcza Niepołomice

77%

Draw or Puszcza Niepołomice

42%

Winning margin

Pogon Szczecin wins by 2+

33%

Puszcza Niepołomice wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Pogon Szczecin 1+ goals

83%

Pogon Szczecin 2+ goals

53%

Pogon Szczecin 3+ goals

26%

Puszcza Niepołomice 1+ goals

61%

Puszcza Niepołomice 2+ goals

24%

Puszcza Niepołomice 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Pogon Szczecin (draw refunded)

75%

Puszcza Niepołomice (draw refunded)

25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pogon Szczecin at home — creates 1.77, concedes 1.10 · 136 matches

Puszcza Niepołomice away — creates 0.76, concedes 1.82 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pogon Szczecin attack 1.77 + Puszcza Niepołomice defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.79

Puszcza Niepołomice attack 0.76 + Pogon Szczecin defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Pogon Szczecin scores more

58%

level

23%

Puszcza Niepołomice scores more

19%

Pogon Szczecin at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Pogon Szczecin will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff