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Puszcza Niepołomice vs Legia Warszawa — Ekstraklasa 2018

Puszcza Niepołomice
Puszcza Niepołomice
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Legia Warszawa
Legia Warszawa
8/13/2023EkstraklasaEkstraklasa · Round 4Stadion Cracovii im. Józefa Piłsudskiego

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Puszcza Niepołomice36%
×Draw26%
Legia Warszawa38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Puszcza Niepołomice
1.34
Legia Warszawa
1.37

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 34 home / 136 away

creates per match

Puszcza Niepołomice
1.47
Legia Warszawa
1.27

allows per match

Puszcza Niepołomice
1.47
Legia Warszawa
1.21

finishing

Puszcza Niepołomice+0.00on par
Legia Warszawa+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Puszcza Niepołomice ↓

Legia Warszawa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Puszcza Niepołomice or draw
62%
Puszcza Niepołomice or Legia Warszawa
74%
Draw or Legia Warszawa
64%

Winning margin

Puszcza Niepołomice wins by 2+
16%
Legia Warszawa wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Puszcza Niepołomice 1+ goals
74%
Puszcza Niepołomice 2+ goals
39%
Puszcza Niepołomice 3+ goals
15%
Legia Warszawa 1+ goals
75%
Legia Warszawa 2+ goals
40%
Legia Warszawa 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Puszcza Niepołomice (draw refunded)
49%
Legia Warszawa (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Puszcza Niepołomice at home — creates 1.47, concedes 1.47 · 34 matches

Legia Warszawa away — creates 1.27, concedes 1.21 · 136 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Puszcza Niepołomice attack 1.47 + Legia Warszawa defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.34

Legia Warszawa attack 1.27 + Puszcza Niepołomice defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.37

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Puszcza Niepołomice scores more
36%
level
26%
Legia Warszawa scores more
38%

Legia Warszawa at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Legia Warszawa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Puszcza Niepołomice vs Legia Warszawa

Puszcza Niepołomice and Legia Warszawa drew 1-1 in Ekstraklasa on August 13, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Cracovii im. Józefa Piłsudskiego in Kraków.