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Legia Warszawa vs Puszcza Niepołomice — Ekstraklasa 2018

Legia Warszawa
Legia Warszawa
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Puszcza Niepołomice
Puszcza Niepołomice
2/18/2024EkstraklasaEkstraklasa · Round 21Stadion Miejski Legii Warszawa im. Marszałka Józefa Piłsudskiego

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Legia Warszawa60%
×Draw23%
Puszcza Niepołomice18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Legia Warszawa
1.84
Puszcza Niepołomice
0.89

Legia Warszawa creates 107% more chances

Season form · 138 home / 34 away

creates per match

Legia Warszawa
1.86
Puszcza Niepołomice
0.76

allows per match

Legia Warszawa
1.01
Puszcza Niepołomice
1.82

finishing

Legia Warszawa+0.00on par
Puszcza Niepołomice+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Legia Warszawa ↓

Puszcza Niepołomice →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–111%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
76%24%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Legia Warszawa or draw
82%
Legia Warszawa or Puszcza Niepołomice
77%
Draw or Puszcza Niepołomice
40%

Winning margin

Legia Warszawa wins by 2+
35%
Puszcza Niepołomice wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Legia Warszawa 1+ goals
84%
Legia Warszawa 2+ goals
55%
Legia Warszawa 3+ goals
28%
Puszcza Niepołomice 1+ goals
59%
Puszcza Niepołomice 2+ goals
22%
Puszcza Niepołomice 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Legia Warszawa (draw refunded)
77%
Puszcza Niepołomice (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Legia Warszawa at home — creates 1.86, concedes 1.01 · 138 matches

Puszcza Niepołomice away — creates 0.76, concedes 1.82 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Legia Warszawa attack 1.86 + Puszcza Niepołomice defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.84

Puszcza Niepołomice attack 0.76 + Legia Warszawa defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Legia Warszawa scores more
60%
level
23%
Puszcza Niepołomice scores more
18%

Legia Warszawa at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Legia Warszawa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ekstraklasa: Legia Warszawa 1–1 Puszcza Niepołomice

Legia Warszawa and Puszcza Niepołomice drew 1-1 in Ekstraklasa on February 18, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Miejski Legii Warszawa im. Marszałka Józefa Piłsudskiego in Warszawa.