Puszcza Niepołomice 1–1 Jagiellonia: Result & Stats

Puszcza Niepołomice

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Jagiellonia

12/8/2024

Ekstraklasa · Round 18Stadion Cracovii im. Józefa Piłsudskiego

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Puszcza Niepołomice41%

×Draw25%

Jagiellonia34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Puszcza NiepołomiceExpected goals in this matchJagiellonia

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.50

1.36

Puszcza Niepołomice

1.50

Jagiellonia

1.36

Puszcza Niepołomice creates 10% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 138 away

1.47

creates per match

1.26

1.47

allows per match

1.52

creates per match

Puszcza Niepołomice

1.47

Jagiellonia

1.26

allows per match

Puszcza Niepołomice

1.47

Jagiellonia

1.52

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Puszcza Niepołomice+0.00on par

Jagiellonia+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Puszcza Niepołomice ↓

Jagiellonia →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

54%46%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Puszcza Niepołomice or draw

66%

Puszcza Niepołomice or Jagiellonia

75%

Draw or Jagiellonia

59%

Winning margin

Puszcza Niepołomice wins by 2+

20%

Jagiellonia wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Puszcza Niepołomice 1+ goals

78%

Puszcza Niepołomice 2+ goals

44%

Puszcza Niepołomice 3+ goals

19%

Jagiellonia 1+ goals

74%

Jagiellonia 2+ goals

39%

Jagiellonia 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Puszcza Niepołomice (draw refunded)

54%

Jagiellonia (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Puszcza Niepołomice at home — creates 1.47, concedes 1.47 · 34 matches

Jagiellonia away — creates 1.26, concedes 1.52 · 138 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Puszcza Niepołomice attack 1.47 + Jagiellonia defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.50

Jagiellonia attack 1.26 + Puszcza Niepołomice defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.36

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Puszcza Niepołomice scores more

41%

level

25%

Jagiellonia scores more

34%

Puszcza Niepołomice at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Puszcza Niepołomice will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff