Jagiellonia 4–1 Puszcza Niepołomice: Result & Stats

Jagiellonia

FT

4 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Puszcza Niepołomice

7/29/2023

Ekstraklasa · Round 2Stadion Miejski

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Jagiellonia56%

×Draw23%

Puszcza Niepołomice21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

JagielloniaExpected goals in this matchPuszcza Niepołomice

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.81

1.00

Jagiellonia

1.81

Puszcza Niepołomice

1.00

Jagiellonia creates 81% more chances

Season form · 136 home / 34 away

1.79

creates per match

0.76

1.24

allows per match

1.82

creates per match

Jagiellonia

1.79

Puszcza Niepołomice

0.76

allows per match

Jagiellonia

1.24

Puszcza Niepołomice

1.82

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Jagiellonia+0.00on par

Puszcza Niepołomice+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jagiellonia ↓

Puszcza Niepołomice →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–111%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Jagiellonia or draw

79%

Jagiellonia or Puszcza Niepołomice

77%

Draw or Puszcza Niepołomice

44%

Winning margin

Jagiellonia wins by 2+

32%

Puszcza Niepołomice wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Jagiellonia 1+ goals

84%

Jagiellonia 2+ goals

54%

Jagiellonia 3+ goals

27%

Puszcza Niepołomice 1+ goals

63%

Puszcza Niepołomice 2+ goals

26%

Puszcza Niepołomice 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Jagiellonia (draw refunded)

73%

Puszcza Niepołomice (draw refunded)

27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jagiellonia at home — creates 1.79, concedes 1.24 · 136 matches

Puszcza Niepołomice away — creates 0.76, concedes 1.82 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jagiellonia attack 1.79 + Puszcza Niepołomice defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.81

Puszcza Niepołomice attack 0.76 + Jagiellonia defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Jagiellonia scores more

56%

level

23%

Puszcza Niepołomice scores more

21%

Jagiellonia at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Jagiellonia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff