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Pustá Polom vs Krnov — 4. liga - Divizie F 2020

Pustá Polom
Pustá Polom
FT
7 – 0
HT: 4 – 0
Krnov
Krnov
10/2/20244. liga - Divizie F4. liga - Divizie F · Division F - 8Stadión Pustá Polom

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Pustá Polom55%
×Draw20%
Krnov25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Pustá Polom
2.29
Krnov
1.50

Pustá Polom creates 53% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 43 away

creates per match

Pustá Polom
1.57
Krnov
0.93

allows per match

Pustá Polom
2.07
Krnov
3.02

finishing

Pustá Polom+0.00on par
Krnov+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Over
  • Over73
  • Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

70%Yes
  • Yes70
  • No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pustá Polom ↓

Krnov →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–05%
1–18%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
73%27%3.5
52%48%4.5
32%68%

Double chance

Pustá Polom or draw
75%
Pustá Polom or Krnov
80%
Draw or Krnov
45%

Winning margin

Pustá Polom wins by 2+
34%
Krnov wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Pustá Polom 1+ goals
90%
Pustá Polom 2+ goals
66%
Pustá Polom 3+ goals
40%
Krnov 1+ goals
78%
Krnov 2+ goals
44%
Krnov 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Pustá Polom (draw refunded)
69%
Krnov (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
62%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pustá Polom at home — creates 1.57, concedes 2.07 · 30 matches

Krnov away — creates 0.93, concedes 3.02 · 43 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pustá Polom attack 1.57 + Krnov defence 3.02 → ÷2 → 2.29

Krnov attack 0.93 + Pustá Polom defence 2.07 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Pustá Polom scores more
55%
level
20%
Krnov scores more
25%

Pustá Polom at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Pustá Polom will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Pustá Polom vs Krnov

Pustá Polom beat Krnov 7-0 in 4. liga - Divizie F on October 2, 2024.

The match was played at Stadión Pustá Polom in Pustá Polom.