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Krnov vs Pustá Polom — 4. liga - Divizie F 2020

Krnov
Krnov
FT
4 – 5
HT: 2 – 2
Pustá Polom
Pustá Polom
4/27/20254. liga - Divizie F4. liga - Divizie F · Division F - 23Klaus Union Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Krnov47%
×Draw23%
Pustá Polom31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Krnov
1.83
Pustá Polom
1.45

Krnov creates 26% more chances

Season form · 43 home / 30 away

creates per match

Krnov
1.30
Pustá Polom
1.37

allows per match

Krnov
1.53
Pustá Polom
2.37

finishing

Krnov+0.00on par
Pustá Polom+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Krnov ↓

Pustá Polom →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–27%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Krnov or draw
69%
Krnov or Pustá Polom
77%
Draw or Pustá Polom
53%

Winning margin

Krnov wins by 2+
25%
Pustá Polom wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Krnov 1+ goals
84%
Krnov 2+ goals
54%
Krnov 3+ goals
28%
Pustá Polom 1+ goals
77%
Pustá Polom 2+ goals
42%
Pustá Polom 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Krnov (draw refunded)
60%
Pustá Polom (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Krnov at home — creates 1.30, concedes 1.53 · 43 matches

Pustá Polom away — creates 1.37, concedes 2.37 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Krnov attack 1.30 + Pustá Polom defence 2.37 → ÷2 → 1.83

Pustá Polom attack 1.37 + Krnov defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.45

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Krnov scores more
47%
level
23%
Pustá Polom scores more
31%

Krnov at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Krnov will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

4. liga - Divizie F: Krnov 4–5 Pustá Polom

Pustá Polom beat Krnov 5-4 in 4. liga - Divizie F on April 27, 2025.

The match was played at Klaus Union Arena in Krnov.