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Puskás II vs Hévíz — NB III - Southwest 2019

Puskás II
Puskás II
CANC
22:00
Hévíz
Hévíz
5/30/2020NB III - SouthwestNB III - Southwest · Nyugati - 30Puskás Akadémia Pancho Aréna

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Puskás II59%
×Draw22%
Hévíz19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.4%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.4% correct across 574,295 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Puskás II
1.98
Hévíz
1.02

Puskás II creates 94% more chances

Season form · 66 home / 8 away

creates per match

Puskás II
2.09
Hévíz
1.00

allows per match

Puskás II
1.03
Hévíz
1.88

finishing

Puskás II+0.00on par
Hévíz+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Puskás II ↓

Hévíz →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–110%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Puskás II or draw
81%
Puskás II or Hévíz
78%
Draw or Hévíz
41%

Winning margin

Puskás II wins by 2+
36%
Hévíz wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Puskás II 1+ goals
86%
Puskás II 2+ goals
59%
Puskás II 3+ goals
31%
Hévíz 1+ goals
64%
Hévíz 2+ goals
27%
Hévíz 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Puskás II (draw refunded)
76%
Hévíz (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Puskás II at home — creates 2.09, concedes 1.03 · 66 matches

Hévíz away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.88 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Puskás II attack 2.09 + Hévíz defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 1.98

Hévíz attack 1.00 + Puskás II defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Puskás II scores more
59%
level
22%
Hévíz scores more
19%

Puskás II at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Puskás II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Puskás II vs Hévíz — Match Preview

Puskás II face Hévíz on May 30, 2020 in this NB III - Southwest fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Puskás II host Hévíz at Puskás Akadémia Pancho Aréna.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.