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Hévíz vs Puskás II — NB III - Southwest 2019

Hévíz
Hévíz
FT
3 – 1
Puskás II
Puskás II
11/17/2019NB III - SouthwestNB III - Southwest · Nyugati - 15Kossuth Lajos utcai Pálya

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Hévíz31%
×Draw24%
Puskás II45%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.4%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.4% correct across 574,295 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hévíz
1.32
Puskás II
1.64

Puskás II creates 24% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 67 away

creates per match

Hévíz
1.40
Puskás II
1.48

allows per match

Hévíz
1.80
Puskás II
1.25

finishing

Hévíz+0.00on par
Puskás II+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hévíz ↓

Puskás II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–19%
0–27%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
57%43%3.5
34%66%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Hévíz or draw
55%
Hévíz or Puskás II
76%
Draw or Puskás II
69%

Winning margin

Hévíz wins by 2+
13%
Puskás II wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

Hévíz 1+ goals
73%
Hévíz 2+ goals
38%
Hévíz 3+ goals
15%
Puskás II 1+ goals
81%
Puskás II 2+ goals
49%
Puskás II 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Hévíz (draw refunded)
41%
Puskás II (draw refunded)
59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hévíz at home — creates 1.40, concedes 1.80 · 10 matches

Puskás II away — creates 1.48, concedes 1.25 · 67 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hévíz attack 1.40 + Puskás II defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.32

Puskás II attack 1.48 + Hévíz defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.64

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Hévíz scores more
31%
level
24%
Puskás II scores more
45%

Puskás II at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Puskás II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

NB III - Southwest: Hévíz 3–1 Puskás II

Hévíz beat Puskás II 3-1 in NB III - Southwest on November 17, 2019.

The match was played at Kossuth Lajos utcai Pálya in Hévíz.