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Puskás II vs Dorogi FC — NB III - Northwest 2019

Puskás II
Puskás II
FT
1 – 3
HT: 0 – 2
Dorogi FC
Dorogi FC
3/10/2024NB III - NorthwestNB III - Northwest · Northwest - 19Puskás Akadémia Pancho Aréna

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Puskás II47%
×Draw24%
Dorogi FC29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Puskás II
1.70
Dorogi FC
1.27

Puskás II creates 34% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 45 away

creates per match

Puskás II
1.82
Dorogi FC
1.38

allows per match

Puskás II
1.16
Dorogi FC
1.58

finishing

Puskás II+0.00on par
Dorogi FC+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Puskás II ↓

Dorogi FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
34%66%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Puskás II or draw
71%
Puskás II or Dorogi FC
76%
Draw or Dorogi FC
53%

Winning margin

Puskás II wins by 2+
25%
Dorogi FC wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Puskás II 1+ goals
82%
Puskás II 2+ goals
51%
Puskás II 3+ goals
24%
Dorogi FC 1+ goals
72%
Dorogi FC 2+ goals
36%
Dorogi FC 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Puskás II (draw refunded)
62%
Dorogi FC (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Puskás II at home — creates 1.82, concedes 1.16 · 45 matches

Dorogi FC away — creates 1.38, concedes 1.58 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Puskás II attack 1.82 + Dorogi FC defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.70

Dorogi FC attack 1.38 + Puskás II defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Puskás II scores more
47%
level
24%
Dorogi FC scores more
29%

Puskás II at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Puskás II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

NB III - Northwest: Puskás II 1–3 Dorogi FC

Dorogi FC beat Puskás II 3-1 in NB III - Northwest on March 10, 2024.

The match was played at Puskás Akadémia Pancho Aréna in Felcsút.