Dorogi FC 1–1 Puskás II: Result & Stats

Dorogi FC

FT

1 – 1

Puskás II

7/28/2024

NB III - Northwest · Northwest - 1Buzánszky Jenő Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Dorogi FC35%

×Draw26%

Puskás II39%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Dorogi FCExpected goals in this matchPuskás II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.32

1.42

Dorogi FC

1.32

Puskás II

1.42

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 45 home / 45 away

1.47

creates per match

1.60

1.24

allows per match

1.18

creates per match

Dorogi FC

1.47

Puskás II

1.60

allows per match

Dorogi FC

1.24

Puskás II

1.18

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Dorogi FC+0.00on par

Puskás II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dorogi FC ↓

Puskás II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–19%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Dorogi FC or draw

61%

Dorogi FC or Puskás II

74%

Draw or Puskás II

65%

Winning margin

Dorogi FC wins by 2+

15%

Puskás II wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Dorogi FC 1+ goals

73%

Dorogi FC 2+ goals

38%

Dorogi FC 3+ goals

15%

Puskás II 1+ goals

76%

Puskás II 2+ goals

41%

Puskás II 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Dorogi FC (draw refunded)

47%

Puskás II (draw refunded)

53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dorogi FC at home — creates 1.47, concedes 1.24 · 45 matches

Puskás II away — creates 1.60, concedes 1.18 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dorogi FC attack 1.47 + Puskás II defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.32

Puskás II attack 1.60 + Dorogi FC defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Dorogi FC scores more

35%

level

26%

Puskás II scores more

39%

Puskás II at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Puskás II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff