Puskas Academy 3–1 Paks: Result & Stats

Puskas Academy

FT

3 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Paks

L. Colley 88'

J. Plšek 81'

Z. Nagy 60' (pen)

B. Tóth 67'

12/14/2024

League #271 · Round 17Puskás Akadémia Pancho Aréna

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Puskas Academy44%

×Draw24%

Paks32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Puskas AcademyExpected goals in this matchPaks

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.67

1.39

Puskas Academy

1.67

Paks

1.39

Puskas Academy creates 20% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 42 away

1.48

creates per match

1.33

1.45

allows per match

1.86

creates per match

Puskas Academy

1.48

Paks

1.33

allows per match

Puskas Academy

1.45

Paks

1.86

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Puskas Academy+0.00on par

Paks+0.00on par

Total goals

Over59
Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Puskas Academy ↓

Paks →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

59%41%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Puskas Academy or draw

68%

Puskas Academy or Paks

76%

Draw or Paks

56%

Winning margin

Puskas Academy wins by 2+

23%

Paks wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Puskas Academy 1+ goals

81%

Puskas Academy 2+ goals

50%

Puskas Academy 3+ goals

23%

Paks 1+ goals

75%

Paks 2+ goals

40%

Paks 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Puskas Academy (draw refunded)

58%

Paks (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Puskas Academy at home — creates 1.48, concedes 1.45 · 33 matches

Paks away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.86 · 42 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Puskas Academy attack 1.48 + Paks defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 1.67

Paks attack 1.33 + Puskas Academy defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Puskas Academy scores more

44%

level

24%

Paks scores more

32%

Puskas Academy at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Puskas Academy will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

25

Z. Nagy

Puskas Academy · M

8.0

Match Events

46'

S. Mezei← K. Horváth

53'

M. Győrfi← A. Skribek

53'

B. Balogh← B. Vécsei

59'

B. Otvos

60'

Z. NagyPenalty

61'

D. Böde← E. Silye

67'

B. Tóth↳ J. Windecker

69'

81'

82'

82'

83'

84'

Z. Kerezsi← M. Soisalo

88'

L. Colley↳ A. Markgráf

89'

L. Colley

90'

B. Vékony← L. Colley

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

PuskasPaks

Overview

49%Possession51%

18Total Shots14

5Corners4

10Fouls7

Shots

18Total Shots14

7On Target3

6Off Target8

5Blocked3

14Inside Box5

4Outside Box9

Passing

49%Possession51%

448Total Passes450

335Accurate Passes331

75%Pass Accuracy74%

Goalkeeping

2Saves4

Discipline

10Fouls7

3Yellow Cards2

4Offsides0