Paks 3–2 Puskas Academy: Result & Stats

Paks

FT

3 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Puskas Academy

J. Windecker 89'

G. Gyurkits 87' (pen), 39'

A. Nemeth 49'

D. Lukacs 8'

9/27/2025

League #271 · Round 8Paksi FC Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Paks52%

×Draw22%

Puskas Academy26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PaksExpected goals in this matchPuskas Academy

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.90

1.27

Paks

1.90

Puskas Academy

1.27

Paks creates 50% more chances

Season form · 42 home / 33 away

1.83

creates per match

1.24

1.29

allows per match

1.97

creates per match

Paks

1.83

Puskas Academy

1.24

allows per match

Paks

1.29

Puskas Academy

1.97

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Paks+0.00on par

Puskas Academy+0.00on par

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Paks ↓

Puskas Academy →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–110%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

61%39%3.5

39%61%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Paks or draw

74%

Paks or Puskas Academy

78%

Draw or Puskas Academy

48%

Winning margin

Paks wins by 2+

30%

Puskas Academy wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Paks 1+ goals

85%

Paks 2+ goals

56%

Paks 3+ goals

29%

Puskas Academy 1+ goals

72%

Puskas Academy 2+ goals

36%

Puskas Academy 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Paks (draw refunded)

67%

Puskas Academy (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Paks at home — creates 1.83, concedes 1.29 · 42 matches

Puskas Academy away — creates 1.24, concedes 1.97 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Paks attack 1.83 + Puskas Academy defence 1.97 → ÷2 → 1.90

Puskas Academy attack 1.24 + Paks defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Paks scores more

52%

level

22%

Puskas Academy scores more

26%

Paks at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Paks will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

18

G. Gyurkits

Paks · M

8.3

Match Events

8'

D. Lukacs

39'

G. Gyurkits↳ M. Zeke

43'

A. Kinyik← G. Vas

46'

D. Bode← J. Hahn

49'

A. Nemeth↳ Q. Maceiras

63'

B. TothGoal Disallowed - handball

65'

67'

69'

72'

72'

76'

76'

P. Stronati← M. Okeke

76'

A. Favorov← R. Szolnoki

76'

B. Vekony← P. Dardai

81'

A. Nemeth

81'

J. Windecker← M. Zeke

81'

M. Peto← K. Horvath

87'

G. GyurkitsPenalty

88'

L. Duarte← D. Lukacs

88'

Z. Nagy← A. Nemeth

89'

Z. Nagy

89'

J. Windecker↳ D. Bode

90+2'

B. Balogh← B. Toth

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

PaksPuskas

Overview

59%Possession41%

21Total Shots11

11Corners3

10Fouls17

Shots

21Total Shots11

9On Target6

4Off Target2

8Blocked3

15Inside Box6

6Outside Box5

Passing

59%Possession41%

425Total Passes312

320Accurate Passes208

75%Pass Accuracy67%

Goalkeeping

5Saves6

Discipline

10Fouls17

3Yellow Cards5

2Offsides1