Puskas Academy 3–1 Fehérvár FC: Result & Stats

Puskas Academy

FT

3 – 1

HT: 2 – 0

Fehérvár FC

Laros Duarte 76'

J. Levi 45+1'

L. Colley 27'

L. Kastrati 88'

4/26/2025

League #271 · Round 29Puskás Akadémia Pancho Aréna

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Puskas Academy40%

×Draw30%

Fehérvár FC30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Puskas AcademyExpected goals in this matchFehérvár FC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.16

0.97

Puskas Academy

1.16

Fehérvár FC

0.97

Puskas Academy creates 20% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 7 away

1.31

creates per match

0.86

1.08

allows per match

1.00

creates per match

Puskas Academy

1.31

Fehérvár FC

0.86

allows per match

Puskas Academy

1.08

Fehérvár FC

1.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Puskas Academy+0.00on par

Fehérvár FC+0.00on par

Total goals

Under64
Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Puskas Academy ↓

Fehérvár FC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–112%

0–26%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

63%37%2.5

36%64%3.5

17%83%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Puskas Academy or draw

70%

Puskas Academy or Fehérvár FC

70%

Draw or Fehérvár FC

60%

Winning margin

Puskas Academy wins by 2+

17%

Fehérvár FC wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Puskas Academy 1+ goals

69%

Puskas Academy 2+ goals

32%

Puskas Academy 3+ goals

11%

Fehérvár FC 1+ goals

62%

Fehérvár FC 2+ goals

25%

Fehérvár FC 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Puskas Academy (draw refunded)

57%

Fehérvár FC (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

29%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Puskas Academy at home — creates 1.31, concedes 1.08 · 13 matches

Fehérvár FC away — creates 0.86, concedes 1.00 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Puskas Academy attack 1.31 + Fehérvár FC defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.16

Fehérvár FC attack 0.86 + Puskas Academy defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Puskas Academy scores more

40%

level

30%

Fehérvár FC scores more

30%

Puskas Academy at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Puskas Academy will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

J. Levi

Puskas Academy · F

8.9

Match Events

11'

27'

41'

45+1'

49'

57'

M. Pető← B. Bedi

70'

J. Fameyeh← L. Colley

70'

U. Nissilä← J. Plšek

74'

M. Katona← B. Szabó

74'

F. Holender← M. Simuț

75'

Simeon Petrov

76'

Laros Duarte↳ J. Levi

83'

L. Kastrati← N. Stefanelli

84'

B. Vékony← J. Levi

84'

Z. Kerezsi← Z. Nagy

86'

R. Orján← Laros Duarte

88'

L. Kastrati↳ M. Katona

90'

Lirim Kastrati

90'

Mátyás Katona

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

PuskasFehérvár

Overview

51%Possession49%

13Total Shots14

3Corners5

22Fouls20

Shots

13Total Shots14

5On Target5

4Off Target4

4Blocked5

8Inside Box9

5Outside Box5

Passing

51%Possession49%

334Total Passes322

265Accurate Passes263

79%Pass Accuracy82%

Goalkeeping

4Saves2

Discipline

22Fouls20

1Yellow Cards5

1Offsides2