Fehérvár FC 1–0 Puskas Academy: Result & Stats

Fehérvár FC

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Puskas Academy

M. Katona 13'

2/1/2025

League #271 · Round 18MOL Aréna Sóstó

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Fehérvár FC58%

×Draw24%

Puskas Academy18%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Fehérvár FCExpected goals in this matchPuskas Academy

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.65

0.80

Fehérvár FC

1.65

Puskas Academy

0.80

Fehérvár FC creates 106% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 11 away

1.75

creates per match

1.09

0.50

allows per match

1.55

creates per match

Fehérvár FC

1.75

Puskas Academy

1.09

allows per match

Fehérvár FC

0.50

Puskas Academy

1.55

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Fehérvár FC+0.00on par

Puskas Academy+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fehérvár FC ↓

Puskas Academy →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–111%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Fehérvár FC or draw

82%

Fehérvár FC or Puskas Academy

76%

Draw or Puskas Academy

42%

Winning margin

Fehérvár FC wins by 2+

32%

Puskas Academy wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Fehérvár FC 1+ goals

81%

Fehérvár FC 2+ goals

49%

Fehérvár FC 3+ goals

23%

Puskas Academy 1+ goals

55%

Puskas Academy 2+ goals

19%

Puskas Academy 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Fehérvár FC (draw refunded)

76%

Puskas Academy (draw refunded)

24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fehérvár FC at home — creates 1.75, concedes 0.50 · 4 matches

Puskas Academy away — creates 1.09, concedes 1.55 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fehérvár FC attack 1.75 + Puskas Academy defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.65

Puskas Academy attack 1.09 + Fehérvár FC defence 0.50 → ÷2 → 0.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Fehérvár FC scores more

58%

level

24%

Puskas Academy scores more

18%

Fehérvár FC at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Fehérvár FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

77

M. Katona

Fehérvár FC · D

7.9

Match Events

13'

M. Katona↳ N. Stefanelli

23'

A. Favorov← R. Szolnoki

31'

35'

37'

51'

61'

61'

63'

Z. NagyGoal Disallowed

69'

A. Huszti

70'

I. Milicevic

73'

B. Vékony← M. Soisalo

79'

M. Simuț← B. Szabó

84'

K. Mondovics← U. Nissilä

84'

J. Fameyeh← L. Colley

85'

Q. Maceiras

86'

B. Bedi← N. Stefanelli

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

FehérvárPuskas

Overview

34%Possession66%

9Total Shots7

4Corners4

16Fouls15

Shots

9Total Shots7

3On Target1

5Off Target5

1Blocked1

3Inside Box2

6Outside Box5

Passing

34%Possession66%

274Total Passes524

186Accurate Passes430

68%Pass Accuracy82%

Goalkeeping

1Saves2

Discipline

16Fouls15

4Yellow Cards3

0Offsides3