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Puntarenas FC vs Escazucena — Liga de Ascenso 2018

Puntarenas FC
Puntarenas FC
FT
3 – 0
Escazucena
Escazucena
10/9/2021Liga de AscensoLiga de Ascenso · Apertura - 14Estadio Municipal de Garabito

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 66+ matches

Puntarenas FC54%
×Draw22%
Escazucena23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Puntarenas FC
1.89
Escazucena
1.15

Puntarenas FC creates 64% more chances

Season form · 66 home / 79 away

creates per match

Puntarenas FC
2.06
Escazucena
1.28

allows per match

Puntarenas FC
1.02
Escazucena
1.71

finishing

Puntarenas FC+0.00on par
Escazucena+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Puntarenas FC ↓

Escazucena →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–110%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Puntarenas FC or draw
77%
Puntarenas FC or Escazucena
78%
Draw or Escazucena
46%

Winning margin

Puntarenas FC wins by 2+
31%
Escazucena wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Puntarenas FC 1+ goals
85%
Puntarenas FC 2+ goals
56%
Puntarenas FC 3+ goals
29%
Escazucena 1+ goals
68%
Escazucena 2+ goals
32%
Escazucena 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Puntarenas FC (draw refunded)
70%
Escazucena (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Puntarenas FC at home — creates 2.06, concedes 1.02 · 66 matches

Escazucena away — creates 1.28, concedes 1.71 · 79 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Puntarenas FC attack 2.06 + Escazucena defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.89

Escazucena attack 1.28 + Puntarenas FC defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Puntarenas FC scores more
54%
level
22%
Escazucena scores more
23%

Puntarenas FC at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Puntarenas FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Puntarenas FC vs Escazucena

Puntarenas FC beat Escazucena 3-0 in Liga de Ascenso on October 9, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal de Garabito in Garabito.