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Escazucena vs Puntarenas FC — Liga de Ascenso 2018

Escazucena
Escazucena
FT
0 – 1
Puntarenas FC
Puntarenas FC
8/20/2021Liga de AscensoLiga de Ascenso · Apertura - 4Estadio Rafael Bolaños

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 66+ matches

Escazucena39%
×Draw27%
Puntarenas FC34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Escazucena
1.29
Puntarenas FC
1.20

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 77 home / 66 away

creates per match

Escazucena
1.51
Puntarenas FC
1.33

allows per match

Escazucena
1.06
Puntarenas FC
1.08

finishing

Escazucena+0.00on par
Puntarenas FC+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Escazucena ↓

Puntarenas FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Escazucena or draw
66%
Escazucena or Puntarenas FC
73%
Draw or Puntarenas FC
61%

Winning margin

Escazucena wins by 2+
17%
Puntarenas FC wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Escazucena 1+ goals
72%
Escazucena 2+ goals
37%
Escazucena 3+ goals
14%
Puntarenas FC 1+ goals
70%
Puntarenas FC 2+ goals
34%
Puntarenas FC 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Escazucena (draw refunded)
53%
Puntarenas FC (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Escazucena at home — creates 1.51, concedes 1.06 · 77 matches

Puntarenas FC away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.08 · 66 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Escazucena attack 1.51 + Puntarenas FC defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.29

Puntarenas FC attack 1.33 + Escazucena defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Escazucena scores more
39%
level
27%
Puntarenas FC scores more
34%

Escazucena at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Escazucena will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga de Ascenso: Escazucena 0–1 Puntarenas FC

Puntarenas FC beat Escazucena 1-0 in Liga de Ascenso on August 20, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio Rafael Bolaños in Alajuela.