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Puntarenas FC vs Barrio México — Liga de Ascenso 2018

Puntarenas FC
Puntarenas FC
CANC
17:00
Barrio México
Barrio México
3/18/2020Liga de AscensoLiga de Ascenso · Clausura - 14Estadio Municipal de Puntarenas Miguel Ángel Lito Pérez Treacy

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 43+ matches

Puntarenas FC49%
×Draw24%
Barrio México27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Puntarenas FC
1.72
Barrio México
1.22

Puntarenas FC creates 41% more chances

Season form · 66 home / 43 away

creates per match

Puntarenas FC
2.06
Barrio México
1.42

allows per match

Puntarenas FC
1.02
Barrio México
1.37

finishing

Puntarenas FC+0.00on par
Barrio México+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Puntarenas FC ↓

Barrio México →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Puntarenas FC or draw
73%
Puntarenas FC or Barrio México
76%
Draw or Barrio México
51%

Winning margin

Puntarenas FC wins by 2+
26%
Barrio México wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Puntarenas FC 1+ goals
82%
Puntarenas FC 2+ goals
51%
Puntarenas FC 3+ goals
25%
Barrio México 1+ goals
70%
Barrio México 2+ goals
34%
Barrio México 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Puntarenas FC (draw refunded)
64%
Barrio México (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Puntarenas FC at home — creates 2.06, concedes 1.02 · 66 matches

Barrio México away — creates 1.42, concedes 1.37 · 43 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Puntarenas FC attack 2.06 + Barrio México defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.72

Barrio México attack 1.42 + Puntarenas FC defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 1.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Puntarenas FC scores more
49%
level
24%
Barrio México scores more
27%

Puntarenas FC at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Puntarenas FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Puntarenas FC host Barrio México

March 18, 2020: Puntarenas FC take on Barrio México in Liga de Ascenso. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Puntarenas FC host Barrio México at Estadio Municipal de Puntarenas Miguel Ángel Lito Pérez Treacy.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.