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Barrio México vs Puntarenas FC — Liga de Ascenso 2018

Barrio México
Barrio México
FT
2 – 1
Puntarenas FC
Puntarenas FC
1/31/2020Liga de AscensoLiga de Ascenso · Clausura - 5Estadio Ernesto Rohrmoser Lahmann

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

Barrio México49%
×Draw25%
Puntarenas FC25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Barrio México
1.58
Puntarenas FC
1.06

Barrio México creates 49% more chances

Season form · 44 home / 64 away

creates per match

Barrio México
2.07
Puntarenas FC
1.36

allows per match

Barrio México
0.77
Puntarenas FC
1.09

finishing

Barrio México+0.00on par
Puntarenas FC+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Barrio México ↓

Puntarenas FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Barrio México or draw
75%
Barrio México or Puntarenas FC
75%
Draw or Puntarenas FC
51%

Winning margin

Barrio México wins by 2+
26%
Puntarenas FC wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Barrio México 1+ goals
79%
Barrio México 2+ goals
47%
Barrio México 3+ goals
21%
Puntarenas FC 1+ goals
65%
Puntarenas FC 2+ goals
29%
Puntarenas FC 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Barrio México (draw refunded)
66%
Puntarenas FC (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Barrio México at home — creates 2.07, concedes 0.77 · 44 matches

Puntarenas FC away — creates 1.36, concedes 1.09 · 64 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Barrio México attack 2.07 + Puntarenas FC defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.58

Puntarenas FC attack 1.36 + Barrio México defence 0.77 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Barrio México scores more
49%
level
25%
Puntarenas FC scores more
25%

Barrio México at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Barrio México will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Barrio México vs Puntarenas FC

Barrio México beat Puntarenas FC 2-1 in Liga de Ascenso on January 31, 2020.

The match was played at Estadio Ernesto Rohrmoser Lahmann in San José.