Pumas Tabasco 0–1 Cimarrones: Result & Stats

Pumas Tabasco

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Cimarrones

9/25/2022

Liga de Expansión MX · Apertura - 14Estadio Olímpico de Villahermosa

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 50+ matches

Pumas Tabasco32%

×Draw28%

Cimarrones39%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Pumas TabascoExpected goals in this matchCimarrones

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.06

1.21

Pumas Tabasco

1.06

Cimarrones

1.21

Cimarrones creates 14% more chances

Season form · 50 home / 97 away

0.78

creates per match

1.07

1.34

allows per match

1.33

creates per match

Pumas Tabasco

0.78

Cimarrones

1.07

allows per match

Pumas Tabasco

1.34

Cimarrones

1.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Pumas Tabasco+0.00on par

Cimarrones+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pumas Tabasco ↓

Cimarrones →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–113%

0–28%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–17%

2–24%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

66%34%2.5

40%60%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Pumas Tabasco or draw

61%

Pumas Tabasco or Cimarrones

72%

Draw or Cimarrones

68%

Winning margin

Pumas Tabasco wins by 2+

12%

Cimarrones wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Pumas Tabasco 1+ goals

65%

Pumas Tabasco 2+ goals

29%

Pumas Tabasco 3+ goals

9%

Cimarrones 1+ goals

70%

Cimarrones 2+ goals

34%

Cimarrones 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Pumas Tabasco (draw refunded)

45%

Cimarrones (draw refunded)

55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pumas Tabasco at home — creates 0.78, concedes 1.34 · 50 matches

Cimarrones away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.33 · 97 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pumas Tabasco attack 0.78 + Cimarrones defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.06

Cimarrones attack 1.07 + Pumas Tabasco defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Pumas Tabasco scores more

32%

level

28%

Cimarrones scores more

39%

Cimarrones at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Cimarrones will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff