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Cimarrones vs Pumas Tabasco — Liga de Expansión MX 2018

Cimarrones
Cimarrones
FT
2 – 1
HT: 2 – 1
Pumas Tabasco
Pumas Tabasco
10/1/2021Liga de Expansión MXLiga de Expansión MX · Apertura - 10Estadio Héroe de Nacozari

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 50+ matches

Cimarrones47%
×Draw26%
Pumas Tabasco28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cimarrones
1.52
Pumas Tabasco
1.11

Cimarrones creates 37% more chances

Season form · 102 home / 50 away

creates per match

Cimarrones
1.43
Pumas Tabasco
1.26

allows per match

Cimarrones
0.96
Pumas Tabasco
1.60

finishing

Cimarrones+0.00on par
Pumas Tabasco+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cimarrones ↓

Pumas Tabasco →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Cimarrones or draw
72%
Cimarrones or Pumas Tabasco
74%
Draw or Pumas Tabasco
53%

Winning margin

Cimarrones wins by 2+
23%
Pumas Tabasco wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Cimarrones 1+ goals
78%
Cimarrones 2+ goals
45%
Cimarrones 3+ goals
20%
Pumas Tabasco 1+ goals
67%
Pumas Tabasco 2+ goals
30%
Pumas Tabasco 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Cimarrones (draw refunded)
63%
Pumas Tabasco (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cimarrones at home — creates 1.43, concedes 0.96 · 102 matches

Pumas Tabasco away — creates 1.26, concedes 1.60 · 50 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cimarrones attack 1.43 + Pumas Tabasco defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.52

Pumas Tabasco attack 1.26 + Cimarrones defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Cimarrones scores more
47%
level
26%
Pumas Tabasco scores more
28%

Cimarrones at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Cimarrones will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Cimarrones vs Pumas Tabasco

Cimarrones beat Pumas Tabasco 2-1 in Liga de Expansión MX on October 1, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio Héroe de Nacozari in Hermosillo.