Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Pumas Tabasco vs Celaya — Liga de Expansión MX 2018

Pumas Tabasco
Pumas Tabasco
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Celaya
Celaya
2/2/2022Liga de Expansión MXLiga de Expansión MX · Clausura - 6Estadio Olímpico de Villahermosa

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 50+ matches

Pumas Tabasco28%
×Draw29%
Celaya43%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Pumas Tabasco
0.95
Celaya
1.25

Celaya creates 32% more chances

Season form · 50 home / 119 away

creates per match

Pumas Tabasco
0.78
Celaya
1.15

allows per match

Pumas Tabasco
1.34
Celaya
1.13

finishing

Pumas Tabasco+0.00on par
Celaya+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pumas Tabasco ↓

Celaya →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–114%
0–29%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–16%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Pumas Tabasco or draw
57%
Pumas Tabasco or Celaya
71%
Draw or Celaya
72%

Winning margin

Pumas Tabasco wins by 2+
10%
Celaya wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Pumas Tabasco 1+ goals
61%
Pumas Tabasco 2+ goals
25%
Pumas Tabasco 3+ goals
7%
Celaya 1+ goals
71%
Celaya 2+ goals
36%
Celaya 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Pumas Tabasco (draw refunded)
39%
Celaya (draw refunded)
61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pumas Tabasco at home — creates 0.78, concedes 1.34 · 50 matches

Celaya away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.13 · 119 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pumas Tabasco attack 0.78 + Celaya defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 0.95

Celaya attack 1.15 + Pumas Tabasco defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Pumas Tabasco scores more
28%
level
29%
Celaya scores more
43%

Celaya at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Celaya will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga de Expansión MX: Pumas Tabasco 0–1 Celaya

Celaya beat Pumas Tabasco 1-0 in Liga de Expansión MX on February 2, 2022.

The match was played at Estadio Olímpico de Villahermosa in Villahermosa.