Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Celaya vs Pumas Tabasco — Liga de Expansión MX 2018

Celaya
Celaya
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Pumas Tabasco
Pumas Tabasco
9/2/2021Liga de Expansión MXLiga de Expansión MX · Apertura - 6Estadio Miguel Alemán Valdés

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 50+ matches

Celaya49%
×Draw25%
Pumas Tabasco26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Celaya
1.56
Pumas Tabasco
1.06

Celaya creates 47% more chances

Season form · 119 home / 50 away

creates per match

Celaya
1.51
Pumas Tabasco
1.26

allows per match

Celaya
0.87
Pumas Tabasco
1.60

finishing

Celaya+0.00on par
Pumas Tabasco+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Celaya ↓

Pumas Tabasco →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Celaya or draw
74%
Celaya or Pumas Tabasco
75%
Draw or Pumas Tabasco
51%

Winning margin

Celaya wins by 2+
25%
Pumas Tabasco wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Celaya 1+ goals
79%
Celaya 2+ goals
46%
Celaya 3+ goals
21%
Pumas Tabasco 1+ goals
65%
Pumas Tabasco 2+ goals
29%
Pumas Tabasco 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Celaya (draw refunded)
65%
Pumas Tabasco (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Celaya at home — creates 1.51, concedes 0.87 · 119 matches

Pumas Tabasco away — creates 1.26, concedes 1.60 · 50 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Celaya attack 1.51 + Pumas Tabasco defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.56

Pumas Tabasco attack 1.26 + Celaya defence 0.87 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Celaya scores more
49%
level
25%
Pumas Tabasco scores more
26%

Celaya at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Celaya will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Celaya vs Pumas Tabasco

Pumas Tabasco beat Celaya 2-1 in Liga de Expansión MX on September 2, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio Miguel Alemán Valdés in Celaya.