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Pumas Tabasco vs CA La Paz — Liga de Expansión MX 2018

Pumas Tabasco
Pumas Tabasco
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
CA La Paz
CA La Paz
3/15/2023Liga de Expansión MXLiga de Expansión MX · Clausura - 11Estadio Olímpico de Villahermosa

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 50+ matches

Pumas Tabasco44%
×Draw25%
CA La Paz30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Pumas Tabasco
1.53
CA La Paz
1.22

Pumas Tabasco creates 25% more chances

Season form · 50 home / 64 away

creates per match

Pumas Tabasco
0.78
CA La Paz
1.09

allows per match

Pumas Tabasco
1.34
CA La Paz
2.28

finishing

Pumas Tabasco+0.00on par
CA La Paz+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pumas Tabasco ↓

CA La Paz →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Pumas Tabasco or draw
70%
Pumas Tabasco or CA La Paz
75%
Draw or CA La Paz
56%

Winning margin

Pumas Tabasco wins by 2+
22%
CA La Paz wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Pumas Tabasco 1+ goals
78%
Pumas Tabasco 2+ goals
45%
Pumas Tabasco 3+ goals
20%
CA La Paz 1+ goals
70%
CA La Paz 2+ goals
34%
CA La Paz 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Pumas Tabasco (draw refunded)
59%
CA La Paz (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pumas Tabasco at home — creates 0.78, concedes 1.34 · 50 matches

CA La Paz away — creates 1.09, concedes 2.28 · 64 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pumas Tabasco attack 0.78 + CA La Paz defence 2.28 → ÷2 → 1.53

CA La Paz attack 1.09 + Pumas Tabasco defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Pumas Tabasco scores more
44%
level
25%
CA La Paz scores more
30%

Pumas Tabasco at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Pumas Tabasco will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga de Expansión MX: Pumas Tabasco 1–1 CA La Paz

Pumas Tabasco and CA La Paz drew 1-1 in Liga de Expansión MX on March 15, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio Olímpico de Villahermosa in Villahermosa.