CA La Paz 6–1 Pumas Tabasco: Result & Stats

CA La Paz

FT

6 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Pumas Tabasco

9/22/2022

Liga de Expansión MX · Apertura - 13Estadio Guaycura

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 50+ matches

CA La Paz46%

×Draw24%

Pumas Tabasco30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CA La PazExpected goals in this matchPumas Tabasco

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.69

1.33

CA La Paz

1.69

Pumas Tabasco

1.33

CA La Paz creates 27% more chances

Season form · 64 home / 50 away

1.78

creates per match

1.26

1.41

allows per match

1.60

creates per match

CA La Paz

1.78

Pumas Tabasco

1.26

allows per match

CA La Paz

1.41

Pumas Tabasco

1.60

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

CA La Paz+0.00on par

Pumas Tabasco+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CA La Paz ↓

Pumas Tabasco →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

CA La Paz or draw

70%

CA La Paz or Pumas Tabasco

76%

Draw or Pumas Tabasco

54%

Winning margin

CA La Paz wins by 2+

24%

Pumas Tabasco wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

CA La Paz 1+ goals

82%

CA La Paz 2+ goals

50%

CA La Paz 3+ goals

24%

Pumas Tabasco 1+ goals

74%

Pumas Tabasco 2+ goals

38%

Pumas Tabasco 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

CA La Paz (draw refunded)

60%

Pumas Tabasco (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CA La Paz at home — creates 1.78, concedes 1.41 · 64 matches

Pumas Tabasco away — creates 1.26, concedes 1.60 · 50 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CA La Paz attack 1.78 + Pumas Tabasco defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.69

Pumas Tabasco attack 1.26 + CA La Paz defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

CA La Paz scores more

46%

level

24%

Pumas Tabasco scores more

30%

CA La Paz at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "CA La Paz will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff