Pully Football 0–1 Monthey: Result & Stats

Pully Football

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Monthey

3/20/2024

1. Liga Classic - Group 1 · Group 1 - 20Centre sportif de Rochettaz

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Pully Football34%

×Draw22%

Monthey44%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Pully FootballExpected goals in this matchMonthey

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.72

1.97

Pully Football

1.72

Monthey

1.97

Monthey creates 15% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 73 away

1.67

creates per match

1.74

2.20

allows per match

1.77

creates per match

Pully Football

1.67

Monthey

1.74

allows per match

Pully Football

2.20

Monthey

1.77

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Pully Football+0.00on par

Monthey+0.00on par

Total goals

Over71
Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes71
No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pully Football ↓

Monthey →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–25%

0–33%

0–42%

1

1–04%

1–19%

1–28%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–27%

2–35%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–24%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

88%12%2.5

71%29%3.5

50%50%4.5

31%69%

Double chance

Pully Football or draw

56%

Pully Football or Monthey

78%

Draw or Monthey

66%

Winning margin

Pully Football wins by 2+

17%

Monthey wins by 2+

24%

Team goals

Pully Football 1+ goals

82%

Pully Football 2+ goals

51%

Pully Football 3+ goals

25%

Monthey 1+ goals

86%

Monthey 2+ goals

58%

Monthey 3+ goals

31%

Draw no bet

Pully Football (draw refunded)

44%

Monthey (draw refunded)

56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

62%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pully Football at home — creates 1.67, concedes 2.20 · 15 matches

Monthey away — creates 1.74, concedes 1.77 · 73 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pully Football attack 1.67 + Monthey defence 1.77 → ÷2 → 1.72

Monthey attack 1.74 + Pully Football defence 2.20 → ÷2 → 1.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Pully Football scores more

34%

level

22%

Monthey scores more

44%

Monthey at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Monthey will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff