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Monthey vs Pully Football — 1. Liga Classic - Group 1 2019

Monthey
Monthey
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Pully Football
Pully Football
9/2/20231. Liga Classic - Group 11. Liga Classic - Group 1 · Group 1 - 5Stade Philippe Pottier

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Monthey52%
×Draw22%
Pully Football26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Monthey
2.00
Pully Football
1.35

Monthey creates 48% more chances

Season form · 73 home / 15 away

creates per match

Monthey
1.60
Pully Football
1.13

allows per match

Monthey
1.58
Pully Football
2.40

finishing

Monthey+0.00on par
Pully Football+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Monthey ↓

Pully Football →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Monthey or draw
74%
Monthey or Pully Football
78%
Draw or Pully Football
48%

Winning margin

Monthey wins by 2+
30%
Pully Football wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Monthey 1+ goals
86%
Monthey 2+ goals
59%
Monthey 3+ goals
32%
Pully Football 1+ goals
74%
Pully Football 2+ goals
39%
Pully Football 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Monthey (draw refunded)
67%
Pully Football (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Monthey at home — creates 1.60, concedes 1.58 · 73 matches

Pully Football away — creates 1.13, concedes 2.40 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Monthey attack 1.60 + Pully Football defence 2.40 → ÷2 → 2.00

Pully Football attack 1.13 + Monthey defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Monthey scores more
52%
level
22%
Pully Football scores more
26%

Monthey at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Monthey will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1. Liga Classic - Group 1: Monthey 1–1 Pully Football

Monthey and Pully Football drew 1-1 in 1. Liga Classic - Group 1 on September 2, 2023.

The match was played at Stade Philippe Pottier in Monthey.