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Pully Football vs Lausanne Sport II — 1. Liga Classic - Group 1 2019

Pully Football
Pully Football
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 2
Lausanne Sport II
Lausanne Sport II
3/9/20241. Liga Classic - Group 11. Liga Classic - Group 1 · Group 1 - 19Centre sportif de Rochettaz

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Pully Football31%
×Draw22%
Lausanne Sport II48%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Pully Football
1.60
Lausanne Sport II
2.02

Lausanne Sport II creates 26% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 58 away

creates per match

Pully Football
1.67
Lausanne Sport II
1.83

allows per match

Pully Football
2.20
Lausanne Sport II
1.53

finishing

Pully Football+0.00on par
Lausanne Sport II+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pully Football ↓

Lausanne Sport II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–25%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–04%
1–19%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
70%30%3.5
49%51%4.5
29%71%

Double chance

Pully Football or draw
52%
Pully Football or Lausanne Sport II
78%
Draw or Lausanne Sport II
69%

Winning margin

Pully Football wins by 2+
15%
Lausanne Sport II wins by 2+
27%

Team goals

Pully Football 1+ goals
80%
Pully Football 2+ goals
47%
Pully Football 3+ goals
22%
Lausanne Sport II 1+ goals
87%
Lausanne Sport II 2+ goals
60%
Lausanne Sport II 3+ goals
33%

Draw no bet

Pully Football (draw refunded)
39%
Lausanne Sport II (draw refunded)
61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pully Football at home — creates 1.67, concedes 2.20 · 15 matches

Lausanne Sport II away — creates 1.83, concedes 1.53 · 58 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pully Football attack 1.67 + Lausanne Sport II defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.60

Lausanne Sport II attack 1.83 + Pully Football defence 2.20 → ÷2 → 2.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Pully Football scores more
31%
level
22%
Lausanne Sport II scores more
48%

Lausanne Sport II at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Lausanne Sport II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Pully Football vs Lausanne Sport II

Pully Football and Lausanne Sport II drew 2-2 in 1. Liga Classic - Group 1 on March 9, 2024.

The match was played at Centre sportif de Rochettaz in Pully.