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Lausanne Sport II vs Pully Football — 1. Liga Classic - Group 1 2019

Lausanne Sport II
Lausanne Sport II
FT
5 – 0
HT: 3 – 0
Pully Football
Pully Football
8/23/20231. Liga Classic - Group 11. Liga Classic - Group 1 · Group 1 - 4Stade de la Tuilière

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Lausanne Sport II66%
×Draw18%
Pully Football16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lausanne Sport II
2.48
Pully Football
1.16

Lausanne Sport II creates 114% more chances

Season form · 54 home / 15 away

creates per match

Lausanne Sport II
2.57
Pully Football
1.13

allows per match

Lausanne Sport II
1.19
Pully Football
2.40

finishing

Lausanne Sport II+0.00on par
Pully Football+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lausanne Sport II ↓

Pully Football →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–18%
1–24%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–07%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–04%
4–15%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
70%30%3.5
49%51%4.5
29%71%

Double chance

Lausanne Sport II or draw
84%
Lausanne Sport II or Pully Football
82%
Draw or Pully Football
34%

Winning margin

Lausanne Sport II wins by 2+
44%
Pully Football wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Lausanne Sport II 1+ goals
92%
Lausanne Sport II 2+ goals
70%
Lausanne Sport II 3+ goals
44%
Pully Football 1+ goals
69%
Pully Football 2+ goals
32%
Pully Football 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Lausanne Sport II (draw refunded)
80%
Pully Football (draw refunded)
20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lausanne Sport II at home — creates 2.57, concedes 1.19 · 54 matches

Pully Football away — creates 1.13, concedes 2.40 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lausanne Sport II attack 2.57 + Pully Football defence 2.40 → ÷2 → 2.48

Pully Football attack 1.13 + Lausanne Sport II defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

Lausanne Sport II scores more
66%
level
18%
Pully Football scores more
16%

Lausanne Sport II at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "Lausanne Sport II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Lausanne Sport II vs Pully Football

Lausanne Sport II beat Pully Football 5-0 in 1. Liga Classic - Group 1 on August 23, 2023.

The match was played at Stade de la Tuilière in Lausanne.