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PuiU Helsinki vs JPS — Kakkonen - Lohko A 2025

PuiU Helsinki
PuiU Helsinki
FT
3 – 1
HT: 2 – 1
JPS
JPS
H. Mohamed 82'
J. Ruumensaari 38'
S. Eranka 5'
Unknown 32' (OG)
7/2/2025Kakkonen - Lohko AKakkonen - Lohko A · Group A - 11Puistolan liikuntapuisto

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

PuiU Helsinki80%
×Draw12%
JPS8%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

PuiU Helsinki
3.19
JPS
0.95

PuiU Helsinki creates 236% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 9 away

creates per match

PuiU Helsinki
1.93
JPS
0.78

allows per match

PuiU Helsinki
1.13
JPS
4.44

finishing

PuiU Helsinki+0.00on par
JPS+0.00on par

Total goals

77%Over
  • Over77
  • Under23

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

PuiU Helsinki ↓

JPS →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–12%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–05%
1–15%
1–22%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–19%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–07%
4–17%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 3–0 (9%) · grid covers 82% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
77%23%3.5
57%43%4.5
37%63%

Double chance

PuiU Helsinki or draw
92%
PuiU Helsinki or JPS
88%
Draw or JPS
20%

Winning margin

PuiU Helsinki wins by 2+
61%
JPS wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

PuiU Helsinki 1+ goals
96%
PuiU Helsinki 2+ goals
82%
PuiU Helsinki 3+ goals
60%
JPS 1+ goals
61%
JPS 2+ goals
25%
JPS 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

PuiU Helsinki (draw refunded)
91%
JPS (draw refunded)
9%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

PuiU Helsinki at home — creates 1.93, concedes 1.13 · 15 matches

JPS away — creates 0.78, concedes 4.44 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

PuiU Helsinki attack 1.93 + JPS defence 4.44 → ÷2 → 3.19

JPS attack 0.78 + PuiU Helsinki defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 80%?"

PuiU Helsinki scores more
80%
level
12%
JPS scores more
8%

PuiU Helsinki at 80% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 80% does not mean "PuiU Helsinki will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

5'
S. Eranka
32'
Own goal
38'
J. Ruumensaari
46'
S. Arponen← A. Medjadji
46'
W. Cikala-Cimanga← W. Cikala-Cimanga
50'
S. Arponen
60'
J. Etelapaa
61'
J. Tolli
64'
I. Abdirashid
67'
J. Ruumensaari← J. Ruumensaari
67'
T. Sinkkila← T. Sinkkila
68'
J. Etelapaa← J. Etelapaa
68'
O. Sormunen← O. Sormunen
73'
I. Abdirashid← I. Abdirashid
79'
T. Naskali
81'
V. Vanttaja← V. Vanttaja
82'
H. Mohamed
82'
A. Tuomainen
84'
E. Kivela← E. Kivela

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Kakkonen - Lohko A: PuiU Helsinki 3–1 JPS

PuiU Helsinki beat JPS 3-1 in Kakkonen - Lohko A on July 2, 2025.

Goals: S. Eranka (5'), ? (32' o.g.), J. Ruumensaari (38'), H. Mohamed (82').

The match was played at Puistolan liikuntapuisto in Helsinki.