JPS 0–2 PuiU Helsinki: Result & Stats

JPS

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

PuiU Helsinki

T. Lamppu 79'

S. Eranka 67'

4/29/2025

Kakkonen - Lohko A · Group A - 2Huhtahalli TN

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

JPS25%

×Draw19%

PuiU Helsinki56%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

JPSExpected goals in this matchPuiU Helsinki

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.75

2.62

JPS

1.75

PuiU Helsinki

2.62

PuiU Helsinki creates 50% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 15 away

1.22

creates per match

1.13

4.11

allows per match

2.27

creates per match

JPS

1.22

PuiU Helsinki

1.13

allows per match

JPS

4.11

PuiU Helsinki

2.27

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

JPS+0.00on par

PuiU Helsinki+0.00on par

Total goals

Over81
Under19

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes76
No24

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

JPS ↓

PuiU Helsinki →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–13%

0–24%

0–34%

0–43%

1

1–02%

1–16%

1–28%

1–37%

1–44%

2

2–02%

2–15%

2–27%

2–36%

2–44%

3

3–01%

3–13%

3–24%

3–33%

3–42%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–22%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (8%) · grid covers 86% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

93%7%2.5

81%19%3.5

63%37%4.5

43%57%

Double chance

JPS or draw

44%

JPS or PuiU Helsinki

81%

Draw or PuiU Helsinki

75%

Winning margin

JPS wins by 2+

12%

PuiU Helsinki wins by 2+

36%

Team goals

JPS 1+ goals

83%

JPS 2+ goals

52%

JPS 3+ goals

25%

PuiU Helsinki 1+ goals

93%

PuiU Helsinki 2+ goals

73%

PuiU Helsinki 3+ goals

48%

Draw no bet

JPS (draw refunded)

31%

PuiU Helsinki (draw refunded)

69%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

71%

Both score & under 3

6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

JPS at home — creates 1.22, concedes 4.11 · 9 matches

PuiU Helsinki away — creates 1.13, concedes 2.27 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

JPS attack 1.22 + PuiU Helsinki defence 2.27 → ÷2 → 1.75

PuiU Helsinki attack 1.13 + JPS defence 4.11 → ÷2 → 2.62

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

JPS scores more

25%

level

19%

PuiU Helsinki scores more

56%

PuiU Helsinki at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "PuiU Helsinki will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

5'

V. Pyyny

13'

E. Kivelä← K. Lindström

22'

J. Ruumensaari

27'

46'

J. Eteläpää← L. Purokuru

57'

P. Kopperoinen

59'

S. Eranka← E. Mehmeti

59'

E. Marttinen← J. Ruumensaari

67'

S. Eranka

70'

A. Ikäheimo← J. Korolainen

71'

79'

T. Lamppu

80'

R. Honko← S. Tuohimaa

80'

H. Mohamed← Teemu Honkaniemi

80'

T. Lamppu← E. Kivelä

85'

90'

S. Nuorala

JPS

PuiU

93

Korkiakos

18

▼

Honkaniem

13

▼

6

9

2

16

23

10

▼

Ruumensaa

7

Sinkkilä

22

▼

Mehmeti

1

Lindfors

8

Naskali

21

▼

Korolaine

4

Peltoniem

9

Arponen

6

▼

25

26

11

14

75

▼

Tuohimaa

Manager: N. Rautionaho

46'▲J. Eteläpää←▼L. Purokuru

70'▲A. Ikäheimo←▼J. Korolainen

80'▲R. Honko←▼S. Tuohimaa

JPS substitutes

23Eteläpää20Ikäheimo2Honko13Lana10Rinta-Halkola15Vanttaja5Sormunen27Medjadji29Kinnunen

Manager: D. Stevens

13'▲E. Kivelä←▼K. Lindström

59'▲S. Eranka←▼E. Mehmeti

59'▲E. Marttinen←▼J. Ruumensaari

80'▲H. Mohamed←▼Teemu Honkaniemi

80'▲T. Lamppu←▼E. Kivelä

PuiU Helsinki substitutes

8Kivelä11Eranka20Marttinen5Mohamed71Lamppu4Tiainen28Sissonen40Ivanenko99Wikström

Kakkonen - Lohko A: JPS 0–2 PuiU Helsinki

PuiU Helsinki beat JPS 2-0 in Kakkonen - Lohko A on April 29, 2025.

Goals: S. Eranka (67'), T. Lamppu (79').

The match was played at Huhtahalli TN in Jyväskylä.

JPS vs PuiU Helsinki — Kakkonen - Lohko A 2025

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Kakkonen - Lohko A: JPS 0–2 PuiU Helsinki