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Puerto Rico vs Curaçao — Friendlies 2026

Puerto Rico
Puerto Rico
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Curaçao
Curaçao
6/13/2023FriendliesFriendlies · Friendlies 2DRV PNK Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Puerto Rico39%
×Draw23%
Curaçao37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Puerto Rico
1.64
Curaçao
1.59

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 5 home / 9 away

creates per match

Puerto Rico
0.60
Curaçao
0.78

allows per match

Puerto Rico
2.40
Curaçao
2.67

finishing

Puerto Rico+0.00on par
Curaçao+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Puerto Rico ↓

Curaçao →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
63%37%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Puerto Rico or draw
63%
Puerto Rico or Curaçao
77%
Draw or Curaçao
61%

Winning margin

Puerto Rico wins by 2+
20%
Curaçao wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Puerto Rico 1+ goals
81%
Puerto Rico 2+ goals
49%
Puerto Rico 3+ goals
23%
Curaçao 1+ goals
80%
Curaçao 2+ goals
47%
Curaçao 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Puerto Rico (draw refunded)
51%
Curaçao (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Puerto Rico at home — creates 0.60, concedes 2.40 · 5 matches

Curaçao away — creates 0.78, concedes 2.67 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Puerto Rico attack 0.60 + Curaçao defence 2.67 → ÷2 → 1.64

Curaçao attack 0.78 + Puerto Rico defence 2.40 → ÷2 → 1.59

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Puerto Rico scores more
39%
level
23%
Curaçao scores more
37%

Puerto Rico at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Puerto Rico will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Friendlies: Puerto Rico 0–0 Curaçao

Puerto Rico and Curaçao drew 0-0 in Friendlies on June 13, 2023.

The match was played at DRV PNK Stadium in Fort Lauderdale, Florida.