Curaçao 0–0 Puerto Rico: Result & Stats

Curaçao

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Puerto Rico

6/13/2023

Friendlies · Friendlies 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Curaçao59%

×Draw27%

Puerto Rico14%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CuraçaoExpected goals in this matchPuerto Rico

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.41

0.52

Curaçao

1.41

Puerto Rico

0.52

Curaçao creates 171% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 7 away

1.25

creates per match

0.29

0.75

allows per match

1.57

creates per match

Curaçao

1.25

Puerto Rico

0.29

allows per match

Curaçao

0.75

Puerto Rico

1.57

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Curaçao+0.00on par

Puerto Rico+0.00on par

Total goals

Under70
Over30

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No69
Yes31

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Curaçao ↓

Puerto Rico →

0–015%

0–18%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1–020%

1–111%

1–23%

1–30%

1–40%

2–014%

2–18%

2–22%

2–30%

2–40%

3–07%

3–14%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4–02%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (20%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

85%15%1.5

57%43%2.5

30%70%3.5

13%87%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Curaçao or draw

86%

Curaçao or Puerto Rico

73%

Draw or Puerto Rico

41%

Winning margin

Curaçao wins by 2+

30%

Puerto Rico wins by 2+

Team goals

Curaçao 1+ goals

76%

Curaçao 2+ goals

41%

Curaçao 3+ goals

17%

Puerto Rico 1+ goals

41%

Puerto Rico 2+ goals

10%

Puerto Rico 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Curaçao (draw refunded)

81%

Puerto Rico (draw refunded)

19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

20%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Curaçao at home — creates 1.25, concedes 0.75 · 8 matches

Puerto Rico away — creates 0.29, concedes 1.57 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Curaçao attack 1.25 + Puerto Rico defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.41

Puerto Rico attack 0.29 + Curaçao defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 0.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 59%?"

Curaçao scores more

59%

level

27%

Puerto Rico scores more

14%

Curaçao at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Curaçao will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff