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Puerto Nuevo vs Atletico Atlas — Primera C 2026

Puerto Nuevo
Puerto Nuevo
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Atletico Atlas
Atletico Atlas
2/27/2023Primera CPrimera C · Round 5Estadio Rubén Carlos Vallejos

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 84+ matches

Puerto Nuevo34%
×Draw28%
Atletico Atlas38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Puerto Nuevo
1.11
Atletico Atlas
1.20

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 84 home / 104 away

creates per match

Puerto Nuevo
0.88
Atletico Atlas
1.07

allows per match

Puerto Nuevo
1.33
Atletico Atlas
1.35

finishing

Puerto Nuevo+0.00on par
Atletico Atlas+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Puerto Nuevo ↓

Atletico Atlas →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–112%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
41%59%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Puerto Nuevo or draw
62%
Puerto Nuevo or Atletico Atlas
72%
Draw or Atletico Atlas
66%

Winning margin

Puerto Nuevo wins by 2+
13%
Atletico Atlas wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Puerto Nuevo 1+ goals
67%
Puerto Nuevo 2+ goals
30%
Puerto Nuevo 3+ goals
10%
Atletico Atlas 1+ goals
70%
Atletico Atlas 2+ goals
34%
Atletico Atlas 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Puerto Nuevo (draw refunded)
47%
Atletico Atlas (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Puerto Nuevo at home — creates 0.88, concedes 1.33 · 84 matches

Atletico Atlas away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.35 · 104 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Puerto Nuevo attack 0.88 + Atletico Atlas defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.11

Atletico Atlas attack 1.07 + Puerto Nuevo defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Puerto Nuevo scores more
34%
level
28%
Atletico Atlas scores more
38%

Atletico Atlas at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Atletico Atlas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera C: Puerto Nuevo 0–2 Atletico Atlas

Atletico Atlas beat Puerto Nuevo 2-0 in Primera C on February 27, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio Rubén Carlos Vallejos in Campana, Provincia de Buenos Aires.