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Atletico Atlas vs Puerto Nuevo — Primera C 2026

Atletico Atlas
Atletico Atlas
FT
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Puerto Nuevo
Puerto Nuevo
2/24/2024Primera CPrimera C · Apertura - 4Estadio Ricardo Puga

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 83+ matches

Atletico Atlas43%
×Draw29%
Puerto Nuevo28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Atletico Atlas
1.25
Puerto Nuevo
0.96

Atletico Atlas creates 30% more chances

Season form · 103 home / 83 away

creates per match

Atletico Atlas
1.22
Puerto Nuevo
0.82

allows per match

Atletico Atlas
1.09
Puerto Nuevo
1.27

finishing

Atletico Atlas+0.00on par
Puerto Nuevo+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atletico Atlas ↓

Puerto Nuevo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–111%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Atletico Atlas or draw
72%
Atletico Atlas or Puerto Nuevo
71%
Draw or Puerto Nuevo
57%

Winning margin

Atletico Atlas wins by 2+
19%
Puerto Nuevo wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Atletico Atlas 1+ goals
71%
Atletico Atlas 2+ goals
36%
Atletico Atlas 3+ goals
13%
Puerto Nuevo 1+ goals
62%
Puerto Nuevo 2+ goals
25%
Puerto Nuevo 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Atletico Atlas (draw refunded)
60%
Puerto Nuevo (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atletico Atlas at home — creates 1.22, concedes 1.09 · 103 matches

Puerto Nuevo away — creates 0.82, concedes 1.27 · 83 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atletico Atlas attack 1.22 + Puerto Nuevo defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.25

Puerto Nuevo attack 0.82 + Atletico Atlas defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Atletico Atlas scores more
43%
level
29%
Puerto Nuevo scores more
28%

Atletico Atlas at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Atletico Atlas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera C: Atletico Atlas 3–0 Puerto Nuevo

Atletico Atlas beat Puerto Nuevo 3-0 in Primera C on February 24, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Ricardo Puga in General Rodríguez, Provincia de Buenos Aires.