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Puerto Golfito vs Limon FC — Liga de Ascenso 2018

Puerto Golfito
Puerto Golfito
CANC
21:00
Limon FC
Limon FC
3/9/2022Liga de AscensoLiga de Ascenso · Clausura - 12

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Puerto Golfito29%
×Draw24%
Limon FC48%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Puerto Golfito
1.27
Limon FC
1.71

Limon FC creates 35% more chances

Season form · 87 home / 16 away

creates per match

Puerto Golfito
1.36
Limon FC
1.69

allows per match

Puerto Golfito
1.72
Limon FC
1.19

finishing

Puerto Golfito+0.00on par
Limon FC+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Puerto Golfito ↓

Limon FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–19%
0–27%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Puerto Golfito or draw
52%
Puerto Golfito or Limon FC
76%
Draw or Limon FC
71%

Winning margin

Puerto Golfito wins by 2+
12%
Limon FC wins by 2+
25%

Team goals

Puerto Golfito 1+ goals
72%
Puerto Golfito 2+ goals
36%
Puerto Golfito 3+ goals
14%
Limon FC 1+ goals
82%
Limon FC 2+ goals
51%
Limon FC 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

Puerto Golfito (draw refunded)
37%
Limon FC (draw refunded)
63%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Puerto Golfito at home — creates 1.36, concedes 1.72 · 87 matches

Limon FC away — creates 1.69, concedes 1.19 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Puerto Golfito attack 1.36 + Limon FC defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.27

Limon FC attack 1.69 + Puerto Golfito defence 1.72 → ÷2 → 1.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Puerto Golfito scores more
29%
level
24%
Limon FC scores more
48%

Limon FC at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Limon FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Puerto Golfito host Limon FC

March 9, 2022: Puerto Golfito take on Limon FC in Liga de Ascenso. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.