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Limon FC vs Puerto Golfito — Liga de Ascenso 2018

Limon FC
Limon FC
CANC
20:00
Puerto Golfito
Puerto Golfito
9/29/2021Liga de AscensoLiga de Ascenso · Apertura - 12

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Limon FC61%
×Draw21%
Puerto Golfito18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Limon FC
2.04
Puerto Golfito
1.02

Limon FC creates 100% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 84 away

creates per match

Limon FC
2.06
Puerto Golfito
0.92

allows per match

Limon FC
1.13
Puerto Golfito
2.01

finishing

Limon FC+0.00on par
Puerto Golfito+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Limon FC ↓

Puerto Golfito →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–110%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Limon FC or draw
82%
Limon FC or Puerto Golfito
79%
Draw or Puerto Golfito
39%

Winning margin

Limon FC wins by 2+
37%
Puerto Golfito wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Limon FC 1+ goals
87%
Limon FC 2+ goals
60%
Limon FC 3+ goals
33%
Puerto Golfito 1+ goals
64%
Puerto Golfito 2+ goals
27%
Puerto Golfito 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Limon FC (draw refunded)
77%
Puerto Golfito (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Limon FC at home — creates 2.06, concedes 1.13 · 16 matches

Puerto Golfito away — creates 0.92, concedes 2.01 · 84 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Limon FC attack 2.06 + Puerto Golfito defence 2.01 → ÷2 → 2.04

Puerto Golfito attack 0.92 + Limon FC defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Limon FC scores more
61%
level
21%
Puerto Golfito scores more
18%

Limon FC at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Limon FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Limon FC face Puerto Golfito (Liga de Ascenso)

Liga de Ascenso returns with Limon FC hosting Puerto Golfito. Match starts September 29, 2021. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.