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Puerto Golfito vs Aserri FC — Liga de Ascenso 2018

Puerto Golfito
Puerto Golfito
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Aserri FC
Aserri FC
2/19/2022Liga de AscensoLiga de Ascenso · Clausura - 8Estadio Municipal El Labrador de Coronado

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 87+ matches

Puerto Golfito40%
×Draw25%
Aserri FC35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Puerto Golfito
1.52
Aserri FC
1.40

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 87 home / 106 away

creates per match

Puerto Golfito
1.36
Aserri FC
1.07

allows per match

Puerto Golfito
1.72
Aserri FC
1.68

finishing

Puerto Golfito+0.00on par
Aserri FC+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Puerto Golfito ↓

Aserri FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Puerto Golfito or draw
65%
Puerto Golfito or Aserri FC
75%
Draw or Aserri FC
60%

Winning margin

Puerto Golfito wins by 2+
20%
Aserri FC wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Puerto Golfito 1+ goals
78%
Puerto Golfito 2+ goals
45%
Puerto Golfito 3+ goals
20%
Aserri FC 1+ goals
75%
Aserri FC 2+ goals
41%
Aserri FC 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Puerto Golfito (draw refunded)
54%
Aserri FC (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Puerto Golfito at home — creates 1.36, concedes 1.72 · 87 matches

Aserri FC away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.68 · 106 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Puerto Golfito attack 1.36 + Aserri FC defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 1.52

Aserri FC attack 1.07 + Puerto Golfito defence 1.72 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Puerto Golfito scores more
40%
level
25%
Aserri FC scores more
35%

Puerto Golfito at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Puerto Golfito will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga de Ascenso: Puerto Golfito 2–1 Aserri FC

Puerto Golfito beat Aserri FC 2-1 in Liga de Ascenso on February 19, 2022.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal El Labrador de Coronado in San Jose.