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Aserri FC vs Puerto Golfito — Liga de Ascenso 2018

Aserri FC
Aserri FC
FT
3 – 2
Puerto Golfito
Puerto Golfito
2/26/2021Liga de AscensoLiga de Ascenso · Clausura - 6Estadio ST Center

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 84+ matches

Aserri FC51%
×Draw24%
Puerto Golfito25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Aserri FC
1.67
Puerto Golfito
1.08

Aserri FC creates 55% more chances

Season form · 104 home / 84 away

creates per match

Aserri FC
1.32
Puerto Golfito
0.92

allows per match

Aserri FC
1.25
Puerto Golfito
2.01

finishing

Aserri FC+0.00on par
Puerto Golfito+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Aserri FC ↓

Puerto Golfito →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Aserri FC or draw
75%
Aserri FC or Puerto Golfito
76%
Draw or Puerto Golfito
49%

Winning margin

Aserri FC wins by 2+
27%
Puerto Golfito wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Aserri FC 1+ goals
81%
Aserri FC 2+ goals
50%
Aserri FC 3+ goals
23%
Puerto Golfito 1+ goals
66%
Puerto Golfito 2+ goals
29%
Puerto Golfito 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Aserri FC (draw refunded)
67%
Puerto Golfito (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Aserri FC at home — creates 1.32, concedes 1.25 · 104 matches

Puerto Golfito away — creates 0.92, concedes 2.01 · 84 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Aserri FC attack 1.32 + Puerto Golfito defence 2.01 → ÷2 → 1.67

Puerto Golfito attack 0.92 + Aserri FC defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Aserri FC scores more
51%
level
24%
Puerto Golfito scores more
25%

Aserri FC at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Aserri FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga de Ascenso: Aserri FC 3–2 Puerto Golfito

Aserri FC beat Puerto Golfito 3-2 in Liga de Ascenso on February 26, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio ST Center in San José.