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Puerto Golfito vs AD Carmelita — Liga de Ascenso 2018

Puerto Golfito
Puerto Golfito
FT
1 – 6
HT: 1 – 5
AD Carmelita
AD Carmelita
3/25/2023Liga de AscensoLiga de Ascenso · Clausura - 16Estadio Fortunato Atencio

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 87+ matches

Puerto Golfito36%
×Draw24%
AD Carmelita39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Puerto Golfito
1.45
AD Carmelita
1.52

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 87 home / 104 away

creates per match

Puerto Golfito
1.36
AD Carmelita
1.31

allows per match

Puerto Golfito
1.72
AD Carmelita
1.54

finishing

Puerto Golfito+0.00on par
AD Carmelita+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Puerto Golfito ↓

AD Carmelita →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
34%66%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Puerto Golfito or draw
61%
Puerto Golfito or AD Carmelita
76%
Draw or AD Carmelita
64%

Winning margin

Puerto Golfito wins by 2+
17%
AD Carmelita wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Puerto Golfito 1+ goals
77%
Puerto Golfito 2+ goals
42%
Puerto Golfito 3+ goals
18%
AD Carmelita 1+ goals
78%
AD Carmelita 2+ goals
45%
AD Carmelita 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Puerto Golfito (draw refunded)
48%
AD Carmelita (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Puerto Golfito at home — creates 1.36, concedes 1.72 · 87 matches

AD Carmelita away — creates 1.31, concedes 1.54 · 104 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Puerto Golfito attack 1.36 + AD Carmelita defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.45

AD Carmelita attack 1.31 + Puerto Golfito defence 1.72 → ÷2 → 1.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Puerto Golfito scores more
36%
level
24%
AD Carmelita scores more
39%

AD Carmelita at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "AD Carmelita will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga de Ascenso: Puerto Golfito 1–6 AD Carmelita

AD Carmelita beat Puerto Golfito 6-1 in Liga de Ascenso on March 25, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio Fortunato Atencio in Golfito.