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AD Carmelita vs Puerto Golfito — Liga de Ascenso 2018

AD Carmelita
AD Carmelita
CANC
00:00
Puerto Golfito
Puerto Golfito
2/17/2024Liga de AscensoLiga de Ascenso · Clausura - 8

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 84+ matches

AD Carmelita54%
×Draw23%
Puerto Golfito23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

AD Carmelita
1.82
Puerto Golfito
1.11

AD Carmelita creates 64% more chances

Season form · 106 home / 84 away

creates per match

AD Carmelita
1.64
Puerto Golfito
0.92

allows per match

AD Carmelita
1.31
Puerto Golfito
2.01

finishing

AD Carmelita+0.00on par
Puerto Golfito+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AD Carmelita ↓

Puerto Golfito →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

AD Carmelita or draw
77%
AD Carmelita or Puerto Golfito
77%
Draw or Puerto Golfito
46%

Winning margin

AD Carmelita wins by 2+
30%
Puerto Golfito wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

AD Carmelita 1+ goals
84%
AD Carmelita 2+ goals
54%
AD Carmelita 3+ goals
27%
Puerto Golfito 1+ goals
67%
Puerto Golfito 2+ goals
30%
Puerto Golfito 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

AD Carmelita (draw refunded)
70%
Puerto Golfito (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

AD Carmelita at home — creates 1.64, concedes 1.31 · 106 matches

Puerto Golfito away — creates 0.92, concedes 2.01 · 84 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

AD Carmelita attack 1.64 + Puerto Golfito defence 2.01 → ÷2 → 1.82

Puerto Golfito attack 0.92 + AD Carmelita defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

AD Carmelita scores more
54%
level
23%
Puerto Golfito scores more
23%

AD Carmelita at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "AD Carmelita will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: AD Carmelita host Puerto Golfito

February 17, 2024: AD Carmelita take on Puerto Golfito in Liga de Ascenso. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.