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Puerto Cabello vs Estudiantes de Merida FC — Primera División 2018

Puerto Cabello
Puerto Cabello
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Estudiantes de Merida FC
Estudiantes de Merida FC
9/27/2025Primera DivisiónPrimera División · Clausura - 12Complejo Deportivo Socialista

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 138+ matches

Puerto Cabello46%
×Draw26%
Estudiantes de Merida FC28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Puerto Cabello
1.49
Estudiantes de Merida FC
1.10

Puerto Cabello creates 35% more chances

Season form · 140 home / 138 away

creates per match

Puerto Cabello
1.41
Estudiantes de Merida FC
1.19

allows per match

Puerto Cabello
1.01
Estudiantes de Merida FC
1.57

finishing

Puerto Cabello+0.00on par
Estudiantes de Merida FC+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Puerto Cabello ↓

Estudiantes de Merida FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Puerto Cabello or draw
72%
Puerto Cabello or Estudiantes de Merida FC
74%
Draw or Estudiantes de Merida FC
54%

Winning margin

Puerto Cabello wins by 2+
23%
Estudiantes de Merida FC wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Puerto Cabello 1+ goals
77%
Puerto Cabello 2+ goals
44%
Puerto Cabello 3+ goals
19%
Estudiantes de Merida FC 1+ goals
67%
Estudiantes de Merida FC 2+ goals
30%
Estudiantes de Merida FC 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Puerto Cabello (draw refunded)
62%
Estudiantes de Merida FC (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Puerto Cabello at home — creates 1.41, concedes 1.01 · 140 matches

Estudiantes de Merida FC away — creates 1.19, concedes 1.57 · 138 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Puerto Cabello attack 1.41 + Estudiantes de Merida FC defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.49

Estudiantes de Merida FC attack 1.19 + Puerto Cabello defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Puerto Cabello scores more
46%
level
26%
Estudiantes de Merida FC scores more
28%

Puerto Cabello at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Puerto Cabello will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Puerto Cabello vs Estudiantes de Merida FC

Estudiantes de Merida FC beat Puerto Cabello 2-1 in Primera División on September 27, 2025.

The match was played at Complejo Deportivo Socialista in Carabobo.